Auction Market Trends 📈📉

What are the trends you guys have noticed in the auction market with new seasons? When do the peaks in price hit, when do the valleys hit? Is ot consistent every new season or are they different?

I did a little research on what happened from Season 3 to Season 4, and it looked like there was a trend where:

1 day before release, market drop

Day of release: slight market bump up

2 days after release, market crash to lowest point for most cards.

After that, there is some variance. Many cards kind of hit a stable point at that new low price. A few rare exceptions temporarily increased in value. Some trickled down over time.

Surely there is some past trends from other Ultimate Team games that can be learned from?

If someone writes a book on how to be profitable in UT, I will buy it…Because I have to be the absolute WORST at selling cards when I should. And it’s 100%…Like Devin Hester had been selling at 500k three days ago. I picked him up, Tried him for a handful of games & didn’t like him and have been trying to sell him for 2 days and now he’s 300k. I am SO BAD at this.

GoIrish1977 said:

If someone writes a book on how to be profitable in UT, I will buy it…Because I have to be the absolute WORST at selling cards when I should. And it’s 100%…Like Devin Hester had been selling at 500k three days ago. I picked him up, Tried him for a handful of games & didn’t like him and have been trying to sell him for 2 days and now he’s 300k. I am SO BAD at this.

Only advice I'd have there is be very cautious about renting near new seasons or big card reveals. The season changes and the locker drops around Christmas were two times there was a ton of market volatility. Theres always a drop a few days before, so if you're gonna rent, either do it farther out from a new season or literally right before.

That sounds like good advice to me, Thank you!

Appreciate you bro!!

GoIrish1977 said:

If someone writes a book on how to be profitable in UT, I will buy it…Because I have to be the absolute WORST at selling cards when I should. And it’s 100%…Like Devin Hester had been selling at 500k three days ago. I picked him up, Tried him for a handful of games & didn’t like him and have been trying to sell him for 2 days and now he’s 300k. I am SO BAD at this.

Primarily anticipating overall increases, with increased emphasis on the specific program that coincides with the overall increase. For example, it was obvious that Game Changers were going to go to 96/97 based on prior history, so it was known that the 95s would crash.

Hester is unique though. There's limited supply of him and he doesn't seem to be pulled often. So you may be able to wait until there's a lull and listings and recoup some more coins.

Marzell said:

Primarily anticipating overall increases, with increased emphasis on the specific program that coincides with the overall increase. For example, it was obvious that Game Changers were going to go to 96/97 based on prior history, so it was known that the 95s would crash.

Hester is unique though. There's limited supply of him and he doesn't seem to be pulled often. So you may be able to wait until there's a lull and listings and recoup some more coins.

Good notes here. Have you noticed what those trends look like for those releases? Does it kind of kill the value of the older cards over time, all at once? 

Also, anything else youve noticed on the LTD cards? Any big price differences when they dissappear from packs?

I suggest yall buy cards now. Market will be exponentially higher in 2 days once people complete those new solos. 640k in coins for a solo grind

I only buy LTDS and none for more than 100k because I'm guaranteed some of the money back

iflippdinero said:

I suggest yall buy cards now. Market will be exponentially higher in 2 days once people complete those new solos. 640k in coins for a solo grind

Im interested to see if this is the case for all cards or moreso the cards that are still at the top of their position. I would thi k a lot of your 94s and 95s stay low and even get lower?

iflippdinero said:

I suggest yall buy cards now. Market will be exponentially higher in 2 days once people complete those new solos. 640k in coins for a solo grind

too bad its fixed now

wnogay said:

Good notes here. Have you noticed what those trends look like for those releases? Does it kind of kill the value of the older cards over time, all at once? 

Also, anything else youve noticed on the LTD cards? Any big price differences when they dissappear from packs?

Yeah, it kills all of the non-LTD  champions because the pack odds increase for the previous iteration of overall (i.e. when 95 is the top overall, it may be a 5% pull but when the overall upgrades, the 95s update to a 10% pull). Those aren't the exact numbers for pack odds but the theory/basis behind them remains true.

LTDs are pretty risky and can't exactly be measured. I've invested in some (Vick, Brady, Names of the Game LTDs). Vick didn't bounce back as high as I thought. Brady and Names of the Game were good investments as I was able to make 50k+ from each of those.I also didn't buy into Reggie at 300k because I thought tons had been pulled, so I missed on that potential investment. You're gambling that the card is one of the best at its position, at a good price point, has a unique ability (Reggie with gold shifty), and also that EA doesn't follow up shortly with a release that is compettive or better than that card.

Weekends changed the market too. Cards can be hot on Thursday then the weekend warriors rip a bunch of packs and flood the market. Legends are very  likely to bottom out on the weekends and climb during the week

Cards from a previous release (Example: Last weeks Rewind players) always take a hit when new cards from the same program are released.  People are opening packs for the newest cards an d will quickly sell off previous weeks players.  Patrick Peterson was down to $50K today.  He was 200K on his release day last week. 

 This is a common theme for all non-LTD’s but in some cases, LTD’s too.